Europa League · Thursday, 15 October 2026 · 17:45. Final score 0–4 (half-time 0–3). Before kick-off we rated it 67% over 2.5 goals — the match finished with 4, so that call landed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 33% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 47% | 53% | Over |
| Both teams to score | 64% | 36% | Yes |
The result model puts Lech Poznan at 43%, the draw at 26% and Bayer Leverkusen at 31%, from expected goals of 2.44 and 1.77.
The league sets the starting point. Europa League has produced over 2.5 goals in 60% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Lech Poznan have 7 in 9 this season (3 of 5 at home), Bayer Leverkusen 4 in 5 (3 of 3 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 65% and 64%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 9 and 5 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 64% and 60%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 62%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 79%, from expected goals of 2.44 for Lech Poznan and 1.77 for Bayer Leverkusen. Folding in 30% of that view gives 67%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lech Poznan | 9 | 78% | 33% | 67% |
| Bayer Leverkusen | 5 | 80% | 80% | 60% |
More: Europa League fixtures. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.