Conference League · Thursday, 15 October 2026 · 20:00. Final score 1–1 (half-time 1–0). Before kick-off we rated it 59% over 2.5 goals — the match finished with 2, so that call missed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 41% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36% | 64% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 53% | 47% | Yes |
The result model puts Heart Of Midlothian at 55%, the draw at 26% and FC Nordsjaelland at 19%, from expected goals of 2.46 and 0.75.
The league sets the starting point. Conference League has produced over 2.5 goals in 59% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Heart Of Midlothian have 7 in 8 this season (4 of 4 at home), FC Nordsjaelland 4 in 10 (3 of 5 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 66% and 53%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 8 and 10 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 58% and 58%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 58%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 62%, from expected goals of 2.46 for Heart Of Midlothian and 0.75 for FC Nordsjaelland. Folding in 30% of that view gives 59%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heart Of Midlothian | 8 | 88% | 38% | 75% |
| FC Nordsjaelland | 10 | 40% | 30% | 40% |
More: Conference League fixtures. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.