Europa League · Thursday, 15 October 2026 · 20:00. Final score 2–3 (half-time 0–0). Before kick-off we rated it 64% over 2.5 goals — the match finished with 5, so that call landed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 64% | 36% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 42% | 58% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 60% | 40% | Yes |
The result model puts 1899 Hoffenheim at 36%, the draw at 28% and Beşiktaş at 36%, from expected goals of 1.71 and 1.75.
The league sets the starting point. Europa League has produced over 2.5 goals in 60% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. 1899 Hoffenheim have 5 in 5 this season (3 of 3 at home), Beşiktaş 5 in 7 (2 of 3 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 67% and 63%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 5 and 7 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 66% and 60%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 62%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 67%, from expected goals of 1.71 for 1899 Hoffenheim and 1.75 for Beşiktaş. Folding in 30% of that view gives 64%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1899 Hoffenheim | 5 | 100% | 80% | 100% |
| Beşiktaş | 7 | 71% | 29% | 57% |
More: Europa League fixtures. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.