Liga de Expansión · Wednesday, 14 October 2026. Final score 4–1 (half-time 3–1). Before kick-off we rated it 55% over 2.5 goals — the match finished with 5, so that call landed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 45% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 37% | 63% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 56% | 44% | Yes |
The result model puts Tapatío at 64%, the draw at 20% and Tepatitlán at 16%, from expected goals of 2.23 and 1.02.
The league sets the starting point. Liga de Expansión has produced over 2.5 goals in 54% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Tapatío have 7 in 11 this season (4 of 6 at home), Tepatitlán 7 in 11 (3 of 4 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 57% and 57%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 11 and 11 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 59% and 46%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 53%.
Head to head. These sides have met 7 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 29%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 52%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 63%, from expected goals of 2.23 for Tapatío and 1.02 for Tepatitlán. Folding in 30% of that view gives 55%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tapatío | 11 | 64% | 64% | 64% |
| Tepatitlán | 11 | 64% | 64% | 45% |
More: Tapatío season stats · Tepatitlán season stats · Liga de Expansión table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.