Champions League · Wednesday, 14 October 2026 · 20:00. Final score 3–1 (half-time 1–1). Before kick-off we rated it 52% over 2.5 goals — the match finished with 4, so that call landed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% | 48% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31% | 69% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 49% | 51% | No |
The result model puts Shakhtar Donetsk at 42%, the draw at 30% and AEK Athens FC at 28%, from expected goals of 1.61 and 0.97.
The league sets the starting point. Champions League has produced over 2.5 goals in 55% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Shakhtar Donetsk have 4 in 8 this season (2 of 4 at home), AEK Athens FC 4 in 6 (1 of 3 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 54% and 58%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 8 and 6 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 57% and 50%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 54%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 48%, from expected goals of 1.61 for Shakhtar Donetsk and 0.97 for AEK Athens FC. Folding in 30% of that view gives 52%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shakhtar Donetsk | 8 | 50% | 13% | 25% |
| AEK Athens FC | 6 | 67% | 33% | 50% |
More: Champions League fixtures. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.