Champions League · Wednesday, 14 October 2026 · 17:45. Final score 3–6 (half-time 0–3). Before kick-off we rated it 59% over 2.5 goals — the match finished with 9, so that call landed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 41% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35% | 65% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 56% | 44% | Yes |
The result model puts Lask Linz at 41%, the draw at 28% and Liverpool at 31%, from expected goals of 1.81 and 1.33.
The league sets the starting point. Champions League has produced over 2.5 goals in 58% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Lask Linz have 6 in 8 this season (3 of 4 at home), Liverpool 3 in 6 (1 of 3 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 62% and 56%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 8 and 6 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 59% and 59%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 59%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 61%, from expected goals of 1.81 for Lask Linz and 1.33 for Liverpool. Folding in 30% of that view gives 59%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lask Linz | 8 | 75% | 38% | 50% |
| Liverpool | 6 | 50% | 33% | 33% |
More: Champions League fixtures. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.