Botola Pro · Wednesday, 14 October 2026 · 21:00. Final score 2–1 (half-time 0–1). Before kick-off we rated it 65% under 2.5 goals — the match finished with 3, so that call missed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 35% | 65% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 13% | 87% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 49% | 51% | No |
The result model puts Ittihad Tanger at 22%, the draw at 33% and Maghreb Fès at 45%, from expected goals of 0.66 and 1.1.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.60 | 36% | 35% | -1% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.48 | 64% | 65% | +1% |
| Both teams to score | 2.10 | 44% | 49% | +4% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Ittihad Tanger 2.90, draw 2.80, Maghreb Fès 2.40.
The league sets the starting point. Botola Pro has produced over 2.5 goals in 38% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Ittihad Tanger have 2 in 3 this season (0 of 1 at home), Maghreb Fès 2 in 3 (1 of 1 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 41% and 41%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 3 and 3 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 33% and 35%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 35%.
Head to head. These sides have met 6 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 33%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 35%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 26%, from expected goals of 0.66 for Ittihad Tanger and 1.1 for Maghreb Fès. Folding in 30% of that view gives 32%.
Calibration. Tested against 97,729 past matches, our ratings below 55% have run consistently too pessimistic — a figure in the high 30s, for instance, has come in about four points higher. So ratings in that range are lifted part-way back, giving 35%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ittihad Tanger | 3 | 67% | 33% | 100% |
| Maghreb Fès | 3 | 67% | 0% | 67% |
More: Ittihad Tanger season stats · Maghreb Fès season stats · Botola Pro table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.