Champions League · Wednesday, 14 October 2026 · 20:00. Final score 1–0 (half-time 0–0). Before kick-off we rated it 62% over 2.5 goals — the match finished with 1, so that call missed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 62% | 38% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 41% | 59% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 55% | 45% | Yes |
The result model puts Bodo/Glimt at 47%, the draw at 28% and Borussia Dortmund at 25%, from expected goals of 2.06 and 1.03.
The league sets the starting point. Champions League has produced over 2.5 goals in 62% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Bodo/Glimt have 17 in 22 this season (9 of 11 at home), Borussia Dortmund 3 in 5 (1 of 2 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 69% and 62%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 22 and 5 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 68% and 59%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 63%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 60%, from expected goals of 2.06 for Bodo/Glimt and 1.03 for Borussia Dortmund. Folding in 30% of that view gives 62%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bodo/Glimt | 22 | 77% | 45% | 45% |
| Borussia Dortmund | 5 | 60% | 40% | 40% |
More: Champions League fixtures. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.