Premier League · Tuesday, 13 October 2026. Final score 1–2 (half-time 0–0). Before kick-off we rated it 69% under 2.5 goals — the match finished with 3, so that call missed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 31% | 69% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 13% | 87% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 42% | 58% | No |
The result model puts Abu Qair Semad at 34%, the draw at 35% and Asyut Petrol at 31%, from expected goals of 0.88 and 0.82.
The league sets the starting point. Premier League has produced over 2.5 goals in 34% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Abu Qair Semad have 0 in 5 this season (0 of 2 at home), Asyut Petrol 0 in 5 (0 of 2 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 28% and 28%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 29%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 24%, from expected goals of 0.88 for Abu Qair Semad and 0.82 for Asyut Petrol. Folding in 30% of that view gives 28%.
Calibration. Tested against 97,729 past matches, our ratings below 55% have run consistently too pessimistic — a figure in the high 30s, for instance, has come in about four points higher. So ratings in that range are lifted part-way back, giving 31%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Abu Qair Semad | 5 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Asyut Petrol | 5 | 0% | 0% | 20% |
More: Abu Qair Semad season stats · Asyut Petrol season stats · Premier League table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.