Ligue 1 · Sunday, 11 October 2026. Final score 0–2 (half-time 0–0). Before kick-off we rated it 54% over 2.5 goals — the match finished with 2, so that call missed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 47% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33% | 67% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 53% | 47% | Yes |
The result model puts Estac Troyes at 32%, the draw at 27% and Marseille at 41%, from expected goals of 1.24 and 1.43.
The league sets the starting point. Ligue 1 has produced over 2.5 goals in 54% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Estac Troyes have 2 in 5 this season (1 of 2 at home), Marseille 3 in 5 (0 of 2 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 51% and 55%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 5 and 5 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 51% and 57%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 54%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 50%, from expected goals of 1.24 for Estac Troyes and 1.43 for Marseille. Folding in 30% of that view gives 53%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Estac Troyes | 5 | 40% | 20% | 40% |
| Marseille | 5 | 60% | 40% | 40% |
More: Estac Troyes season stats · Marseille season stats · Ligue 1 table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.