Liga Pro · Saturday, 10 October 2026. Final score 2–1 (half-time 0–1). We made no pick on this game before kick-off; our pre-match rating was 48% for over 2.5 goals.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 48% | 52% | no pick |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25% | 75% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 50% | 50% | No |
The result model puts Independiente del Valle at 54%, the draw at 26% and Aucas at 20%, from expected goals of 1.54 and 0.83.
The league sets the starting point. Liga Pro has produced over 2.5 goals in 44% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Independiente del Valle have 21 in 30 this season (10 of 15 at home), Aucas 11 in 31 (4 of 15 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 58% and 39%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 30 and 31 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 56% and 41%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 47%.
Head to head. These sides have met 7 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 57%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 48%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 42%, from expected goals of 1.54 for Independiente del Valle and 0.83 for Aucas. Folding in 30% of that view gives 46%.
Calibration. Tested against 97,729 past matches, our ratings below 55% have run consistently too pessimistic — a figure in the high 30s, for instance, has come in about four points higher. So ratings in that range are lifted part-way back, giving 48%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Independiente del Valle | 30 | 70% | 50% | 57% |
| Aucas | 31 | 35% | 16% | 39% |
More: Independiente del Valle season stats · Aucas season stats · Liga Pro table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.