NIFL Premiership · Saturday, 10 October 2026. Final score 2–4 (half-time 1–3). Before kick-off we rated it 54% over 2.5 goals — the match finished with 6, so that call landed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 44% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34% | 66% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 53% | 47% | Yes |
The result model puts Dungannon Swifts at 29%, the draw at 26% and Carrick Rangers at 45%, from expected goals of 1.21 and 1.58.
The league sets the starting point. NIFL Premiership has produced over 2.5 goals in 56% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Dungannon Swifts have 2 in 9 this season (1 of 4 at home), Carrick Rangers 5 in 10 (2 of 5 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 46% and 54%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 9 and 10 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 55% and 58%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 56%.
Head to head. These sides have met 10 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 80%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 57%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 53%, from expected goals of 1.21 for Dungannon Swifts and 1.58 for Carrick Rangers. Folding in 30% of that view gives 56%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dungannon Swifts | 9 | 22% | 11% | 22% |
| Carrick Rangers | 10 | 50% | 40% | 40% |
More: Dungannon Swifts season stats · Carrick Rangers season stats · NIFL Premiership table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.