Promotion League · Saturday, 10 October 2026. Final score 0–2 (half-time 0–0). Before kick-off we rated it 66% over 2.5 goals — the match finished with 2, so that call missed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 68% | 32% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 48% | 52% | Over |
| Both teams to score | 61% | 39% | Yes |
The result model puts Bavois at 65%, the draw at 19% and Amical Saint-Prex at 15%, from expected goals of 2.27 and 1.
The league sets the starting point. Promotion League has produced over 2.5 goals in 68% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Bavois have 4 in 10 this season (2 of 4 at home), Amical Saint-Prex 8 in 10 (5 of 5 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 60% and 72%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 10 and 10 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 67% and 72%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 69%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 64%, from expected goals of 2.27 for Bavois and 1 for Amical Saint-Prex. Folding in 30% of that view gives 68%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bavois | 10 | 40% | 20% | 30% |
| Amical Saint-Prex | 10 | 80% | 60% | 70% |
More: Bavois season stats · Amical Saint-Prex season stats · Promotion League table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.