Liga de Expansión · Sunday, 4 October 2026. Final score 6–3 (half-time 3–0). Before kick-off we rated it 58% over 2.5 goals — the match finished with 9, so that call landed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 44% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 37% | 63% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 59% | 41% | Yes |
The result model puts Leones Negros UDG at 56%, the draw at 21% and Dorados at 22%, from expected goals of 2.13 and 1.29.
The league sets the starting point. Liga de Expansión has produced over 2.5 goals in 54% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Leones Negros UDG have 7 in 10 this season (3 of 4 at home), Dorados 5 in 10 (2 of 4 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 58% and 53%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 10 and 10 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 51% and 53%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 53%.
Head to head. These sides have met 5 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 40%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 52%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 66%, from expected goals of 2.13 for Leones Negros UDG and 1.29 for Dorados. Folding in 30% of that view gives 56%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leones Negros UDG | 10 | 70% | 50% | 70% |
| Dorados | 10 | 50% | 50% | 70% |
More: Leones Negros UDG season stats · Dorados season stats · Liga de Expansión table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.