Kansallinen Liiga (W) · Sunday, 4 October 2026. Final score 2–3 (half-time 0–3). Rebuilt from the season as it stood that morning, our rating would have been 69% for over 2.5 goals. This game was not captured by our pre-kick-off freeze, so that figure is a reconstruction from pre-match data rather than a number we published at the time — a distinction worth making, because only the frozen ones prove what we actually said beforehand.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 69% | 31% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 49% | 51% | Over |
| Both teams to score | 54% | 46% | Yes |
The result model puts HJK W at 79%, the draw at 13% and HPS W at 7%, from expected goals of 2.87 and 0.8.
The league sets the starting point. Kansallinen Liiga (W) has produced over 2.5 goals in 68% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. HJK W have 15 in 21 this season (8 of 10 at home), HPS W 11 in 21 (5 of 10 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 70% and 61%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 21 and 21 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 69% and 68%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 69%.
Head to head. These sides have met 12 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 67%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 68%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 71%, from expected goals of 2.87 for HJK W and 0.8 for HPS W. Folding in 30% of that view gives 69%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
More: HJK W season stats · HPS W season stats · Kansallinen Liiga (W) table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.