1. Division · Saturday, 3 October 2026. Final score 3–3 (half-time 2–2). Before kick-off we rated it 63% over 2.5 goals — the match finished with 6, so that call landed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 63% | 37% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 42% | 58% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 63% | 37% | Yes |
The result model puts Strommen at 41%, the draw at 24% and Sandnes ULF at 35%, from expected goals of 1.7 and 1.56.
The league sets the starting point. 1. Division has produced over 2.5 goals in 67% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Strommen have 16 in 23 this season (8 of 11 at home), Sandnes ULF 11 in 23 (5 of 11 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 68% and 57%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 64%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 63%, from expected goals of 1.7 for Strommen and 1.56 for Sandnes ULF. Folding in 30% of that view gives 63%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strommen | 23 | 70% | 52% | 61% |
| Sandnes ULF | 23 | 48% | 30% | 52% |
More: Strommen season stats · Sandnes ULF season stats · 1. Division table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.