Serie C · Saturday, 3 October 2026. Final score 1–1 (half-time 1–0). Before kick-off we rated it 62% under 2.5 goals — the match finished with 2, so that call landed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 38% | 62% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 15% | 85% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 46% | 54% | No |
The result model puts Floresta at 41%, the draw at 32% and Botafogo PB at 27%, from expected goals of 1.08 and 0.81.
The league sets the starting point. Serie C has produced over 2.5 goals in 35% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Floresta have 10 in 23 this season (4 of 12 at home), Botafogo PB 8 in 23 (4 of 12 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 39% and 35%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 23 and 23 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 34% and 37%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 35%.
Head to head. These sides have met 4 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 75%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 37%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 30%, from expected goals of 1.08 for Floresta and 0.81 for Botafogo PB. Folding in 30% of that view gives 35%.
Calibration. Tested against 97,729 past matches, our ratings below 55% have run consistently too pessimistic — a figure in the high 30s, for instance, has come in about four points higher. So ratings in that range are lifted part-way back, giving 38%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Floresta | 23 | 43% | 9% | 57% |
| Botafogo PB | 23 | 35% | 17% | 39% |
More: Floresta season stats · Botafogo PB season stats · Serie C table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.