Promotion League · Saturday, 3 October 2026. Final score 1–2 (half-time 1–2). Before kick-off we rated it 59% over 2.5 goals — the match finished with 3, so that call landed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 64% | 36% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 48% | 52% | Over |
| Both teams to score | 61% | 39% | Yes |
The result model puts Amical Saint-Prex at 22%, the draw at 24% and Biel-Bienne at 53%, from expected goals of 1.06 and 1.76.
The league sets the starting point. Promotion League has produced over 2.5 goals in 68% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Amical Saint-Prex have 7 in 9 this season (2 of 4 at home), Biel-Bienne 4 in 9 (1 of 5 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 71% and 62%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 9 and 9 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 71% and 67%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 69%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 54%, from expected goals of 1.06 for Amical Saint-Prex and 1.76 for Biel-Bienne. Folding in 30% of that view gives 64%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amical Saint-Prex | 9 | 78% | 67% | 67% |
| Biel-Bienne | 9 | 44% | 44% | 44% |
More: Amical Saint-Prex season stats · Biel-Bienne season stats · Promotion League table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.