Promotion League · Sunday, 27 September 2026. Final score 2–2 (half-time 2–0). Rebuilt from the season as it stood that morning, our rating would have been 61% for over 2.5 goals. This game was not captured by our pre-kick-off freeze, so that figure is a reconstruction from pre-match data rather than a number we published at the time — a distinction worth making, because only the frozen ones prove what we actually said beforehand.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 61% | 39% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 42% | 58% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 60% | 40% | Yes |
The result model puts Bellinzona at 51%, the draw at 25% and Breitenrain at 24%, from expected goals of 1.71 and 1.09.
The league sets the starting point. Promotion League has produced over 2.5 goals in 68% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Bellinzona have 4 in 8 this season (2 of 3 at home), Breitenrain 5 in 8 (2 of 4 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 64% and 67%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 8 and 8 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 64% and 64%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 65%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 53%, from expected goals of 1.71 for Bellinzona and 1.09 for Breitenrain. Folding in 30% of that view gives 61%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bellinzona | 8 | 50% | 25% | 38% |
| Breitenrain | 8 | 63% | 38% | 50% |
More: Bellinzona season stats · Breitenrain season stats · Promotion League table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.