Promotion League · Saturday, 26 September 2026. Final score 1–2 (half-time 1–1). Before kick-off we rated it 68% over 2.5 goals — the match finished with 3, so that call landed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 33% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 50% | 50% | Over |
| Both teams to score | 65% | 35% | Yes |
The result model puts Zürich II at 35%, the draw at 25% and Grand-Saconnex at 40%, from expected goals of 1.48 and 1.58.
The league sets the starting point. Promotion League has produced over 2.5 goals in 69% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Zürich II have 7 in 8 this season (3 of 4 at home), Grand-Saconnex 6 in 8 (2 of 3 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 74% and 71%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 8 and 8 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 68% and 71%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 70%.
Head to head. These sides have met 4 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 100%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 71%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 59%, from expected goals of 1.48 for Zürich II and 1.58 for Grand-Saconnex. Folding in 30% of that view gives 67%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zürich II | 8 | 88% | 75% | 75% |
| Grand-Saconnex | 8 | 75% | 38% | 50% |
More: Zürich II season stats · Grand-Saconnex season stats · Promotion League table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.