Toppserien (W) · Saturday, 26 September 2026. Final score 1–1 (half-time 1–0). Before kick-off we rated it 59% over 2.5 goals — the match finished with 2, so that call missed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 61% | 39% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 38% | 62% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 53% | 47% | Yes |
The result model puts Rosenborg W at 58%, the draw at 22% and Fortuna Ålesund W at 20%, from expected goals of 2.05 and 1.14.
The league sets the starting point. Toppserien (W) has produced over 2.5 goals in 61% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Rosenborg W have 8 in 16 this season (4 of 8 at home), Fortuna Ålesund W 10 in 16 (5 of 8 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 56% and 61%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 16 and 16 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 60% and 61%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 61%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 62%, from expected goals of 2.05 for Rosenborg W and 1.14 for Fortuna Ålesund W. Folding in 30% of that view gives 61%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rosenborg W | 16 | 50% | 31% | 56% |
| Fortuna Ålesund W | 16 | 63% | 44% | 56% |
More: Rosenborg W season stats · Fortuna Ålesund W season stats · Toppserien (W) table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.