Toppserien (W) · Saturday, 26 September 2026. Final score 1–1 (half-time 1–0). Before kick-off we rated it 56% over 2.5 goals — the match finished with 2, so that call missed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 43% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35% | 65% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 48% | 52% | No |
The result model puts Lyn W at 68%, the draw at 19% and Hønefoss W at 13%, from expected goals of 2.17 and 0.83.
The league sets the starting point. Toppserien (W) has produced over 2.5 goals in 61% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Lyn W have 9 in 16 this season (4 of 7 at home), Hønefoss W 8 in 16 (3 of 8 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 59% and 57%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 16 and 16 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 60% and 57%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 59%.
Head to head. These sides have met 4 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 25%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 57%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 58%, from expected goals of 2.17 for Lyn W and 0.83 for Hønefoss W. Folding in 30% of that view gives 57%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lyn W | 16 | 56% | 38% | 38% |
| Hønefoss W | 16 | 50% | 25% | 38% |
More: Lyn W season stats · Hønefoss W season stats · Toppserien (W) table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.