Promotion League · Saturday, 26 September 2026. Final score 2–3 (half-time 1–1). Before kick-off we rated it 73% over 2.5 goals — the match finished with 5, so that call landed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 74% | 26% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 58% | 42% | Over |
| Both teams to score | 67% | 33% | Yes |
The result model puts Luzern II at 62%, the draw at 18% and Amical Saint-Prex at 20%, from expected goals of 2.67 and 1.49.
The league sets the starting point. Promotion League has produced over 2.5 goals in 69% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Luzern II have 4 in 8 this season (1 of 3 at home), Amical Saint-Prex 6 in 8 (4 of 4 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 64% and 71%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 8 and 8 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 76% and 71%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 72%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 78%, from expected goals of 2.67 for Luzern II and 1.49 for Amical Saint-Prex. Folding in 30% of that view gives 74%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luzern II | 8 | 50% | 38% | 38% |
| Amical Saint-Prex | 8 | 75% | 63% | 63% |
More: Luzern II season stats · Amical Saint-Prex season stats · Promotion League table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.