Promotion League · Saturday, 26 September 2026. Final score 0–1 (half-time 0–0). Before kick-off we rated it 68% over 2.5 goals — the match finished with 1, so that call missed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 33% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 48% | 52% | Over |
| Both teams to score | 64% | 36% | Yes |
The result model puts Lugano II at 37%, the draw at 24% and Cham at 39%, from expected goals of 1.59 and 1.62.
The league sets the starting point. Promotion League has produced over 2.5 goals in 69% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Lugano II have 7 in 8 this season (4 of 4 at home), Cham 5 in 8 (1 of 2 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 73% and 67%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 8 and 8 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 67% and 69%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 68%.
Head to head. These sides have met 5 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 80%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 69%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 62%, from expected goals of 1.59 for Lugano II and 1.62 for Cham. Folding in 30% of that view gives 67%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
More: Lugano II season stats · Cham season stats · Promotion League table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.