Kansallinen Liiga (W) · Saturday, 26 September 2026. Final score 0–3 (half-time 0–3). Before kick-off we rated it 74% over 2.5 goals — the match finished with 3, so that call landed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 72% | 28% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 49% | 51% | Over |
| Both teams to score | 63% | 37% | Yes |
The result model puts IF Gnistan at 37%, the draw at 23% and Ilves W at 41%, from expected goals of 1.7 and 1.81.
The league sets the starting point. Kansallinen Liiga (W) has produced over 2.5 goals in 68% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. IF Gnistan have 16 in 20 this season (8 of 10 at home), Ilves W 16 in 20 (8 of 10 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 74% and 74%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 73%.
Head to head. These sides have met 3 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 100%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 74%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 68%, from expected goals of 1.7 for IF Gnistan and 1.81 for Ilves W. Folding in 30% of that view gives 72%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| IF Gnistan | 20 | 80% | 60% | 60% |
| Ilves W | 20 | 80% | 45% | 65% |
More: IF Gnistan season stats · Ilves W season stats · Kansallinen Liiga (W) table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.