Kansallinen Liiga (W) · Saturday, 26 September 2026. Final score 0–10 (half-time 0–4). Before kick-off we rated it 70% over 2.5 goals — the match finished with 10, so that call landed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 71% | 29% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 51% | 49% | Over |
| Both teams to score | 62% | 38% | Yes |
The result model puts HJS Akatemia W at 49%, the draw at 21% and PK-35 Vantaa W at 30%, from expected goals of 2.18 and 1.7.
The league sets the starting point. Kansallinen Liiga (W) has produced over 2.5 goals in 68% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. HJS Akatemia W have 4 in 6 this season (1 of 3 at home), PK-35 Vantaa W 15 in 20 (8 of 10 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 68% and 71%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 6 and 20 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 68% and 71%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 69%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 74%, from expected goals of 2.18 for HJS Akatemia W and 1.7 for PK-35 Vantaa W. Folding in 30% of that view gives 71%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HJS Akatemia W | 6 | 67% | 67% | 67% |
| PK-35 Vantaa W | 20 | 75% | 55% | 60% |
More: HJS Akatemia W season stats · PK-35 Vantaa W season stats · Kansallinen Liiga (W) table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.