Liga de Expansión · Saturday, 26 September 2026. Final score 1–2 (half-time 1–0). Rebuilt from the season as it stood that morning, our rating would have been 54% for over 2.5 goals. This game was not captured by our pre-kick-off freeze, so that figure is a reconstruction from pre-match data rather than a number we published at the time — a distinction worth making, because only the frozen ones prove what we actually said beforehand.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 46% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35% | 65% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 58% | 42% | Yes |
The result model puts Cruz Azul Hidalgo at 43%, the draw at 24% and Leones Negros UDG at 33%, from expected goals of 1.69 and 1.45.
The league sets the starting point. Liga de Expansión has produced over 2.5 goals in 53% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Cruz Azul Hidalgo have 4 in 9 this season (2 of 4 at home), Leones Negros UDG 6 in 9 (3 of 5 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 51% and 57%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 9 and 9 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 51% and 51%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 51%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 61%, from expected goals of 1.69 for Cruz Azul Hidalgo and 1.45 for Leones Negros UDG. Folding in 30% of that view gives 54%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cruz Azul Hidalgo | 9 | 44% | 22% | 44% |
| Leones Negros UDG | 9 | 67% | 56% | 67% |
More: Cruz Azul Hidalgo season stats · Leones Negros UDG season stats · Liga de Expansión table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.