Promotion League · Saturday, 26 September 2026. Final score 2–0 (half-time 1–0). Before kick-off we rated it 72% over 2.5 goals — the match finished with 2, so that call missed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 71% | 29% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 54% | 46% | Over |
| Both teams to score | 67% | 33% | Yes |
The result model puts Biel-Bienne at 54%, the draw at 20% and Bavois at 26%, from expected goals of 2.35 and 1.61.
The league sets the starting point. Promotion League has produced over 2.5 goals in 69% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Biel-Bienne have 4 in 8 this season (3 of 3 at home), Bavois 4 in 8 (2 of 4 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 64% and 64%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 8 and 8 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 67% and 69%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 68%.
Head to head. These sides have met 5 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 100%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 70%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 76%, from expected goals of 2.35 for Biel-Bienne and 1.61 for Bavois. Folding in 30% of that view gives 71%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biel-Bienne | 8 | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Bavois | 8 | 50% | 25% | 38% |
More: Biel-Bienne season stats · Bavois season stats · Promotion League table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.