Serie C · Sunday, 20 September 2026. Final score 1–0 (half-time 1–0). Before kick-off we rated it 71% under 2.5 goals — the match finished with 1, so that call landed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 32% | 68% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 12% | 88% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 43% | 57% | No |
The result model puts Santa Cruz at 34%, the draw at 37% and Floresta at 29%, from expected goals of 0.82 and 0.72.
The league sets the starting point. Serie C has produced over 2.5 goals in 35% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Santa Cruz have 4 in 21 this season (0 of 10 at home), Floresta 10 in 21 (6 of 10 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 27% and 41%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 21 and 21 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 27% and 34%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 32%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 20%, from expected goals of 0.82 for Santa Cruz and 0.72 for Floresta. Folding in 30% of that view gives 28%.
Calibration. Tested against 97,729 past matches, our ratings below 55% have run consistently too pessimistic — a figure in the high 30s, for instance, has come in about four points higher. So ratings in that range are lifted part-way back, giving 32%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Santa Cruz | 21 | 19% | 10% | 38% |
| Floresta | 21 | 48% | 10% | 57% |
More: Santa Cruz season stats · Floresta season stats · Serie C table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.