Serie C · Sunday, 20 September 2026. Final score 2–2 (half-time 1–1). Before kick-off we rated it 52% under 2.5 goals — the match finished with 4, so that call missed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 47% | 53% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24% | 76% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 52% | 48% | Yes |
The result model puts Paysandu at 45%, the draw at 25% and Inter De Limeira at 30%, from expected goals of 1.61 and 1.26.
The league sets the starting point. Serie C has produced over 2.5 goals in 35% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Paysandu have 12 in 21 this season (8 of 11 at home), Inter De Limeira 11 in 21 (6 of 11 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 45% and 43%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 42%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 55%, from expected goals of 1.61 for Paysandu and 1.26 for Inter De Limeira. Folding in 30% of that view gives 46%.
Calibration. Tested against 97,729 past matches, our ratings below 55% have run consistently too pessimistic — a figure in the high 30s, for instance, has come in about four points higher. So ratings in that range are lifted part-way back, giving 47%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paysandu | 21 | 57% | 24% | 62% |
| Inter De Limeira | 21 | 52% | 29% | 57% |
More: Paysandu season stats · Inter De Limeira season stats · Serie C table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.