Taça de Portugal · Sunday, 20 September 2026 · 15:00. Our rating makes this 35% to go over 2.5 goals, though we make no pick on this fixture — see below. The Taça de Portugal average is 44%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 35% | 65% | no pick |
| Over 3.5 goals | 16% | 84% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 43% | 57% | no pick |
The result model puts Naval 1893 at 36%, the draw at 31% and Felgueiras 1932 at 33%, from expected goals of 1.03 and 0.98.
The league sets the starting point. Taça de Portugal has produced over 2.5 goals in 44% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Naval 1893 have 0 in 0 this season, Felgueiras 1932 1 in 4 (0 of 2 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 44% and 40%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 0 and 4 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 44% and 34%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 40%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 33%, from expected goals of 1.03 for Naval 1893 and 0.98 for Felgueiras 1932. Folding in 30% of that view gives 38%.
Season opener. One of these sides has not played a league game yet. Openers run about 2.5 points under their league's norm, measured across 2,727 of them, so the rating is docked to 35%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Naval 1893 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Felgueiras 1932 | 4 | 25% | 0% | 75% |
More: Felgueiras 1932 season stats · Taça de Portugal table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.