Toppserien (W) · Sunday, 20 September 2026. Final score 4–1 (half-time 1–0). Rebuilt from the season as it stood that morning, our rating would have been 63% for over 2.5 goals. This game was not captured by our pre-kick-off freeze, so that figure is a reconstruction from pre-match data rather than a number we published at the time — a distinction worth making, because only the frozen ones prove what we actually said beforehand.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 63% | 37% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 40% | 60% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 53% | 47% | Yes |
The result model puts Fortuna Ålesund W at 57%, the draw at 21% and Molde W at 22%, from expected goals of 2.12 and 1.25.
The league sets the starting point. Toppserien (W) has produced over 2.5 goals in 61% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Fortuna Ålesund W have 9 in 15 this season (4 of 7 at home), Molde W 10 in 15 (5 of 7 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 60% and 63%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 62%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 65%, from expected goals of 2.12 for Fortuna Ålesund W and 1.25 for Molde W. Folding in 30% of that view gives 63%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fortuna Ålesund W | 15 | 60% | 40% | 53% |
| Molde W | 15 | 67% | 47% | 60% |
More: Fortuna Ålesund W season stats · Molde W season stats · Toppserien (W) table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.