1. SNL · Sunday, 20 September 2026. Final score 2–1 (half-time 0–1). Before kick-off we rated it 67% over 2.5 goals — the match finished with 3, so that call landed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 66% | 34% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 37% | 63% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 61% | 39% | Yes |
The result model puts Brinje-Grosuplje at 36%, the draw at 23% and Radomlje at 40%, from expected goals of 1.63 and 1.73.
The league sets the starting point. 1. SNL has produced over 2.5 goals in 63% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Brinje-Grosuplje have 6 in 9 this season (3 of 4 at home), Radomlje 6 in 8 (3 of 3 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 64% and 66%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 9 and 8 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 64% and 70%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 66%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 65%, from expected goals of 1.63 for Brinje-Grosuplje and 1.73 for Radomlje. Folding in 30% of that view gives 66%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brinje-Grosuplje | 9 | 67% | 22% | 67% |
| Radomlje | 8 | 75% | 50% | 63% |
More: Brinje-Grosuplje season stats · Radomlje season stats · 1. SNL table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.