Taça de Portugal · Sunday, 20 September 2026 · 15:00. Our rating makes this 41% to go over 2.5 goals, though we make no pick on this fixture — see below. The Taça de Portugal average is 44%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 41% | 59% | no pick |
| Over 3.5 goals | 19% | 81% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 43% | 57% | no pick |
The result model puts Beira-Mar at 36%, the draw at 28% and CF Os Belenenses at 36%, from expected goals of 1.16 and 1.16.
The league sets the starting point. Taça de Portugal has produced over 2.5 goals in 44% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Beira-Mar have 0 in 0 this season, CF Os Belenenses 0 in 0. Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 44% and 44%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 44%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 41%, from expected goals of 1.16 for Beira-Mar and 1.16 for CF Os Belenenses. Folding in 30% of that view gives 43%.
Season opener. One of these sides has not played a league game yet. Openers run about 2.5 points under their league's norm, measured across 2,727 of them, so the rating is docked to 41%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beira-Mar | 0 | — | — | — |
| CF Os Belenenses | 0 | — | — | — |
More: CF Os Belenenses season stats · Taça de Portugal table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.