Super Liga · Saturday, 19 September 2026. Final score 1–2 (half-time 1–0). Rebuilt from the season as it stood that morning, our rating would have been 57% for over 2.5 goals. This match is older than our frozen ratings ledger, which keeps 30 days, so that figure is a reconstruction from pre-match data rather than a number we published at the time — a distinction worth making, because only the frozen ones prove what we actually said beforehand.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 43% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36% | 64% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 53% | 47% | Yes |
The result model puts Komárno at 14%, the draw at 21% and Slovan Bratislava at 65%, from expected goals of 0.79 and 1.99.
The league sets the starting point. Super Liga has produced over 2.5 goals in 58% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Komárno have 4 in 8 this season (2 of 3 at home), Slovan Bratislava 6 in 7 (2 of 3 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 56% and 64%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 8 and 7 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 54% and 60%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 57%.
Head to head. These sides have met 4 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 100%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 59%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 53%, from expected goals of 0.79 for Komárno and 1.99 for Slovan Bratislava. Folding in 30% of that view gives 57%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Komárno | 8 | 50% | 13% | 75% |
| Slovan Bratislava | 7 | 86% | 43% | 43% |
More: Komárno season stats · Slovan Bratislava season stats · Super Liga table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.