Europa League · Thursday, 17 September 2026 · 17:45. Our rating makes this 66% to go over 2.5 goals, though we make no pick on this fixture — see below. The Europa League average is 59%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 66% | 34% | no pick |
| Over 3.5 goals | 42% | 58% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 55% | 45% | no pick |
The result model puts OFI at 56%, the draw at 21% and 1899 Hoffenheim at 23%, from expected goals of 2.11 and 1.28.
The league sets the starting point. Europa League has produced over 2.5 goals in 59% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. OFI have 1 in 2 this season (0 of 1 at home), 1899 Hoffenheim 1 in 1 (1 of 1 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 57% and 61%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 2 and 1 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 67% and 70%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 67%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 66%, from expected goals of 2.11 for OFI and 1.28 for 1899 Hoffenheim. Folding in 30% of that view gives 66%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OFI | 2 | 50% | 0% | 50% |
| 1899 Hoffenheim | 1 | 100% | 100% | 100% |
More: Europa League table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.