EFL Cup · Thursday, 17 September 2026 · 19:30. Our rating makes this 57% to go over 2.5 goals, though we make no pick on this fixture — see below. The EFL Cup average is 54%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 43% | no pick |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26% | 74% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 56% | 44% | no pick |
The result model puts Manchester City at 66%, the draw at 19% and Norwich at 15%, from expected goals of 2.19 and 0.92.
The league sets the starting point. EFL Cup has produced over 2.5 goals in 54% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Manchester City have 2 in 2 this season (1 of 1 at home), Norwich 3 in 4 (1 of 2 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 58% and 56%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 2 and 4 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 62% and 50%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 56%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 60%, from expected goals of 2.19 for Manchester City and 0.92 for Norwich. Folding in 30% of that view gives 57%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester City | 2 | 100% | 50% | 100% |
| Norwich | 4 | 75% | 25% | 50% |
More: Manchester City season stats · Norwich season stats · EFL Cup table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.