Europa League · Thursday, 17 September 2026 · 20:00. Our rating makes this 57% to go over 2.5 goals, though we make no pick on this fixture — see below. The Europa League average is 59%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 43% | no pick |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36% | 64% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 49% | 51% | no pick |
The result model puts Lillestrom at 42%, the draw at 23% and Torreense at 35%, from expected goals of 1.68 and 1.5.
The league sets the starting point. Europa League has produced over 2.5 goals in 59% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Lillestrom have 9 in 18 this season (7 of 9 at home), Torreense 0 in 0. Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 59% and 59%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 59%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 62%, from expected goals of 1.68 for Lillestrom and 1.5 for Torreense. Folding in 30% of that view gives 60%.
Season opener. One of these sides has not played a league game yet. Openers run about 2.5 points under their league's norm, measured across 2,727 of them, so the rating is docked to 57%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lillestrom | 18 | 50% | 33% | 44% |
| Torreense | 0 | — | — | — |
More: Europa League table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.