Levski Sofia v Red Bull Salzburg — prediction, stats and goal analysis

Europa League · Thursday, 17 September 2026 · 17:45. Our rating makes this 57% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The Europa League average is 55%.

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Our ratings for this match

The result model puts Levski Sofia at 67%, the draw at 20% and Red Bull Salzburg at 14%, from expected goals of 2.07 and 0.81.

How we got this number

The league sets the starting point. Europa League has produced over 2.5 goals in 55% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.

Each side's own record. Levski Sofia have 5 in 6 this season (3 of 4 at home), Red Bull Salzburg 2 in 4 (1 of 2 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 61% and 54%.

Last season still counts, briefly. With 6 and 4 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 56% and 60%.

The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 58%.

Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 55%, from expected goals of 2.07 for Levski Sofia and 0.81 for Red Bull Salzburg. Folding in 30% of that view gives 57%.

This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.

Season form

More: Europa League table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.