Copa Libertadores · Thursday, 17 September 2026 · 01:30. Our rating makes this 31% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is under. The Copa Libertadores average is 41%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 31% | 69% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 13% | 87% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 42% | 58% | No |
The result model puts Corinthians at 35%, the draw at 35% and Estudiantes L.P. at 29%, from expected goals of 0.85 and 0.74.
The league sets the starting point. Copa Libertadores has produced over 2.5 goals in 41% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Corinthians have 9 in 25 this season (4 of 13 at home), Estudiantes L.P. 6 in 24 (1 of 11 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 37% and 30%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 35%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 21%, from expected goals of 0.85 for Corinthians and 0.74 for Estudiantes L.P.. Folding in 30% of that view gives 31%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corinthians | 25 | 36% | 16% | 48% |
| Estudiantes L.P. | 24 | 25% | 8% | 17% |
More: Copa Libertadores table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.