Europa League · Wednesday, 16 September 2026 · 20:00. Our rating makes this 53% to go over 2.5 goals, though we make no pick on this fixture — see below. The Europa League average is 60%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 47% | no pick |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31% | 69% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 56% | 44% | no pick |
The result model puts Sunderland at 30%, the draw at 26% and AZ Alkmaar at 44%, from expected goals of 1.14 and 1.42.
The league sets the starting point. Europa League has produced over 2.5 goals in 60% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Sunderland have 1 in 2 this season (0 of 1 at home), AZ Alkmaar 2 in 4 (1 of 2 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 58% and 58%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 2 and 4 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 47% and 63%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 56%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 47%, from expected goals of 1.14 for Sunderland and 1.42 for AZ Alkmaar. Folding in 30% of that view gives 53%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sunderland | 2 | 50% | 0% | 50% |
| AZ Alkmaar | 4 | 50% | 50% | 50% |
More: Europa League table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.