Copa Sudamericana · Wednesday, 16 September 2026 · 01:30. Our rating makes this 43% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is under. The Copa Sudamericana average is 41%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 43% | 57% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 20% | 80% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 49% | 51% | No |
The result model puts Sao Paulo at 35%, the draw at 26% and Boca Juniors at 39%, from expected goals of 1.27 and 1.36.
The league sets the starting point. Copa Sudamericana has produced over 2.5 goals in 41% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Sao Paulo have 10 in 24 this season (5 of 11 at home), Boca Juniors 7 in 24 (7 of 12 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 42% and 40%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 41%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 49%, from expected goals of 1.27 for Sao Paulo and 1.36 for Boca Juniors. Folding in 30% of that view gives 43%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sao Paulo | 24 | 42% | 13% | 63% |
| Boca Juniors | 24 | 29% | 8% | 50% |
More: Copa Sudamericana table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.