Europa League · Wednesday, 16 September 2026 · 20:00. Our rating makes this 47% to go over 2.5 goals, though we make no pick on this fixture — see below. The Europa League average is 57%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 47% | 53% | no pick |
| Over 3.5 goals | 23% | 77% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 51% | 49% | no pick |
The result model puts Olympiakos Piraeus at 46%, the draw at 28% and Jagiellonia at 26%, from expected goals of 1.31 and 0.91.
The league sets the starting point. Europa League has produced over 2.5 goals in 57% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Olympiakos Piraeus have 0 in 2 this season (0 of 1 at home), Jagiellonia 2 in 4 (2 of 2 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 52% and 58%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 2 and 4 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 37% and 63%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 51%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 38%, from expected goals of 1.31 for Olympiakos Piraeus and 0.91 for Jagiellonia. Folding in 30% of that view gives 47%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olympiakos Piraeus | 2 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Jagiellonia | 4 | 50% | 25% | 50% |
More: Europa League table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.