Copa Libertadores · Wednesday, 16 September 2026 · 23:00. Our rating makes this 42% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is under. The Copa Libertadores average is 46%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 42% | 58% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 20% | 80% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 49% | 51% | No |
The result model puts LDU de Quito at 26%, the draw at 28% and Palmeiras at 46%, from expected goals of 0.9 and 1.3.
The league sets the starting point. Copa Libertadores has produced over 2.5 goals in 46% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. LDU de Quito have 7 in 28 this season (3 of 14 at home), Palmeiras 14 in 25 (8 of 13 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 33% and 52%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 43%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 38%, from expected goals of 0.9 for LDU de Quito and 1.3 for Palmeiras. Folding in 30% of that view gives 42%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LDU de Quito | 28 | 25% | 4% | 32% |
| Palmeiras | 25 | 56% | 28% | 64% |
More: Copa Libertadores table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.