Europa League · Wednesday, 16 September 2026 · 20:00. Our rating makes this 62% to go over 2.5 goals, though we make no pick on this fixture — see below. The Europa League average is 57%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 62% | 38% | no pick |
| Over 3.5 goals | 41% | 59% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 53% | 47% | no pick |
The result model puts Hapoel Beer Sheva at 36%, the draw at 23% and Dinamo Zagreb at 41%, from expected goals of 1.63 and 1.74.
The league sets the starting point. Europa League has produced over 2.5 goals in 57% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Hapoel Beer Sheva have 1 in 1 this season, Dinamo Zagreb 3 in 4 (1 of 1 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 58% and 60%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 1 and 4 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 56% and 67%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 60%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 65%, from expected goals of 1.63 for Hapoel Beer Sheva and 1.74 for Dinamo Zagreb. Folding in 30% of that view gives 62%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hapoel Beer Sheva | 1 | 100% | 0% | 100% |
| Dinamo Zagreb | 4 | 75% | 75% | 50% |
More: Europa League table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.