Europa League · Wednesday, 16 September 2026 · 20:00. Our rating makes this 65% to go over 2.5 goals, though we make no pick on this fixture — see below. The Europa League average is 62%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 65% | 35% | no pick |
| Over 3.5 goals | 45% | 55% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 58% | 42% | no pick |
The result model puts Bayer Leverkusen at 43%, the draw at 22% and Celje at 35%, from expected goals of 1.85 and 1.67.
The league sets the starting point. Europa League has produced over 2.5 goals in 62% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Bayer Leverkusen have 1 in 1 this season, Celje 3 in 5 (2 of 2 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 63% and 64%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 1 and 5 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 59% and 68%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 63%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 68%, from expected goals of 1.85 for Bayer Leverkusen and 1.67 for Celje. Folding in 30% of that view gives 65%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayer Leverkusen | 1 | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Celje | 5 | 60% | 60% | 80% |
More: Europa League table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.