Greek Cup · Wednesday, 16 September 2026 · 16:00. Our rating makes this 41% to go over 2.5 goals, though we make no pick on this fixture — see below. The Greek Cup average is 49%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 41% | 59% | no pick |
| Over 3.5 goals | 19% | 81% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 47% | 53% | no pick |
The result model puts Aris Thessalonikis at 49%, the draw at 27% and Marko at 24%, from expected goals of 1.43 and 0.92.
The league sets the starting point. Greek Cup has produced over 2.5 goals in 49% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Aris Thessalonikis have 2 in 2 this season (1 of 1 at home), Marko 0 in 0. Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 54% and 49%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 2 and 0 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 37% and 49%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 45%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 42%, from expected goals of 1.43 for Aris Thessalonikis and 0.92 for Marko. Folding in 30% of that view gives 44%.
Season opener. One of these sides has not played a league game yet. Openers run about 2.5 points under their league's norm, measured across 2,727 of them, so the rating is docked to 41%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aris Thessalonikis | 2 | 100% | 50% | 100% |
| Marko | 0 | — | — | — |
More: Aris Thessalonikis season stats · Greek Cup table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.