AFC Champions · Tuesday, 15 September 2026 · 11:00. Our rating makes this 59% to go over 2.5 goals, though we make no pick on this fixture — see below. The AFC Champions average is 61%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 41% | no pick |
| Over 3.5 goals | 39% | 61% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 62% | 38% | no pick |
The result model puts Ratchaburi at 37%, the draw at 23% and SHANGHAI SIPG at 40%, from expected goals of 1.62 and 1.68.
The league sets the starting point. AFC Champions has produced over 2.5 goals in 61% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Ratchaburi have 0 in 0 this season, SHANGHAI SIPG 15 in 25 (8 of 13 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 61% and 61%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 61%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 64%, from expected goals of 1.62 for Ratchaburi and 1.68 for SHANGHAI SIPG. Folding in 30% of that view gives 62%.
Season opener. One of these sides has not played a league game yet. Openers run about 2.5 points under their league's norm, measured across 2,727 of them, so the rating is docked to 59%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ratchaburi | 0 | — | — | — |
| SHANGHAI SIPG | 25 | 60% | 36% | 72% |
More: AFC Champions table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.