Copa Libertadores · Tuesday, 15 September 2026 · 23:00. Our rating makes this 41% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is under. The Copa Libertadores average is 41%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 41% | 59% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 21% | 79% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 49% | 51% | No |
The result model puts Platense at 22%, the draw at 26% and Fluminense at 52%, from expected goals of 0.91 and 1.52.
The league sets the starting point. Copa Libertadores has produced over 2.5 goals in 41% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Platense have 7 in 23 this season (3 of 11 at home), Fluminense 13 in 25 (4 of 12 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 35% and 43%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 39%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 44%, from expected goals of 0.91 for Platense and 1.52 for Fluminense. Folding in 30% of that view gives 41%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Platense | 23 | 30% | 13% | 39% |
| Fluminense | 25 | 52% | 28% | 76% |
More: Copa Libertadores table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.