Coppa Italia · Tuesday, 15 September 2026 · 17:00. Our rating makes this 44% to go over 2.5 goals, though we make no pick on this fixture — see below. The Coppa Italia average is 47%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 44% | 56% | no pick |
| Over 3.5 goals | 19% | 81% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 51% | 49% | no pick |
The result model puts Genoa at 27%, the draw at 28% and Sudtirol at 45%, from expected goals of 0.98 and 1.33.
The league sets the starting point. Coppa Italia has produced over 2.5 goals in 47% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Genoa have 0 in 2 this season (0 of 1 at home), Sudtirol 0 in 2 (0 of 1 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 43% and 43%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 2 and 2 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 51% and 38%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 45%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 41%, from expected goals of 0.98 for Genoa and 1.33 for Sudtirol. Folding in 30% of that view gives 44%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
More: Genoa season stats · Sudtirol season stats · Coppa Italia table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.